Global port congestion growing rattling supply chains

Discussions with multiple JOC sources in 2025 and emerging data are pointing to a growing long-term problem of port congestion, a topic of discussion in several sessions at TPM26.

The reasons are ships arriving off proforma, itself due to delays at earlier port calls and thus self-reinforcing, as well as ship sizes growing faster than berth capacity available to handle those ships. The Container Port Performance Index report points to longer vessel times in port and containers stalled or delayed enroute as indicators of growing port delays. The strains will only get worse given the 162 ships over 18,000 TEUs on order on top of the 202 ships of that size already in service, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence--an order book north of 80% which is much larger than the overall container ship order book which is in the low 30% range.

For shippers this is problematic on multiple fronts. Port delays require greater inventory and the working capital needed to support it, and longer ocean transit times force longer lead times which undermine companies’ sales forecasts. Port congestion also pulls capacity off the market, not unlike geopolitical shocks like Red Sea diversions, benefiting carriers who are battling growing overcapacity.

Understanding where congestion is most likely to flare up and when is increasingly relevant for logistics planners and why it will be a topic raised across multiple sessions at TPM26

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