It had been assumed for months that restoration of normal shipping patterns through the Red Sea was a distant possibility. But actually until two ships were sunk on July 6 and July 9 respectively, shattering seven months of calm, carrier executives were privately telling JOC.com that risks were diminishing and they were starting to reassess.

Now that’s over, with any return to normality back to being as distant as ever.

Any idea, for example, that military setbacks experienced by Iran and its network of regional militias and allies would undermine the Houthis and their campaign against shipping, was similarly debunked.

“The most recent Houthi attacks … allow them to demonstrate that, unlike Iran and its other proxy groups in the region, they remain undeterred by the threat of US or Israeli military confrontation,” Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, told the Journal of Commerce Wednesday.

The facts remain: the region is dangerous, carriers will not put their crews, ships and cargo at risk, and the status quo whereby 10% of capacity is absorbed and transit times on Asia-Europe and Asia/US East Coast remain artificially extended.

The relative strength of Asia-Europe rates versus the trans-Pacific shows the continuing market impact of the Red Sea diversions.

TPM26 will be the best opportunity of your year to get fully up to speed on forces impacting container shipping supply chains including the situation in the Red Sea, given the likelihood it will be remain a factor in the market by next March.

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About Journal of Commerce

Journal of Commerce is produced by a team of specialized, subject-matter expert journalists providing original daily news analysis of international logistics for corporate logistics teams and other participants in global supply chains. We are accountable to paying subscribers who demand that our news and analysis be accurate, fair, independent, and informative. Part of S&P Global, the editorial team leverages extensive data assets and relationships built over many years throughout trade and transportation to deliver trusted, executive-level insights relied upon by senior logistics executives. The Journal of Commerce group builds on its expertise and source relationships to develop industry-leading conferences including TPM, Breakbulk, and Inland Distribution.